In addition, fluctuations in both environmental and economic factors are considerable and frequent. For example, yellowtail has to be raised for more than a year to achieve the market size (Nakada, 2008), while tuna requires 2 to 3 years (Masuma, Miyashita, Yamamoto, & Kumai, 2008). For instance, the period from the beginning of aquaculture production to shipment is long. However, some characteristics of the aquaculture industry make it challenging to achieve such goals. Rational management in the aquaculture industry would be required for the improvement of the profitability of aquaculture activities and promotion of investment in the industry. In addition, government projects that could facilitate the growth of the aquaculture industry have been initiated, for example, the exploration of new fishing grounds offshore and the exploitation of novel technologies, such as information and communication technologies (ICT), artificial intelligence (AI), and robots. The amended Fisheries Act emphasizes the appropriate and effective use of fishing grounds by all aquaculture producers. The Fisheries Act of Japan was amended substantially in December 2018. However, the profits in the Japanese aquaculture industry have been declining, and the number of people engaged in the industry has been decreasing. The transformation of the aquaculture industry into a growth industry is a major policy goal in Japan. The high temperature scenario had lower profits than the profits under current conditions, indicating that climate change could have adverse effects on oyster farming profitability in Miyagi prefecture. The moderate temperature scenario (current temperature conditions) had a high total profit (962,890 JPY) when harvest was initiated on October 29. Early initiation of harvest, particularly from late October or early November, achieved the maximum profit under the environmental and economic conditions in the present study. Low, moderate, and high temperature scenarios were simulated to investigate the effects of changes in seawater temperature on farm productivity. In the present study, we developed a bioeconomic model for oyster farming in Miyagi prefecture, Japan, and determined the optimal harvest schedules under labor constraints. Although bioeconomic modeling could facilitate rational aquaculture management, it has not been applied in Japanese marine aquaculture. Rational management is required for the profitability of the Japanese aquaculture industry and to promote investment in the industry.
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